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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Weston v Lansdown 1 (Wed 09 Mar 2016)Match played between Chris Clare (home) and Richard Colman (away).Match won by Chris Clare. Result: 11-4,11-9,10-12,11-3. Starting level for Chris Clare: 8,669, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Richard Colman: 5,186, level confidence: 47%. Chris Clare to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Richard Colman. Chris Clare won 75% of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Clare played 34% better than Richard Colman in this match. As Chris Clare has played below his allowed range at 7,144, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Clare would normally have been playing at level 8,042 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Colman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 5.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Clare changes to -1.1% and Richard Colman changes to +5.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Clare becomes -0.6% and for Richard Colman becomes +2.5%. Given Chris Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Given Richard Colman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Chris Clare is -0.4% and for Richard Colman is +1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Clare: 90%, Richard Colman: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Clare: 81%, Richard Colman: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris Clare: 8,624, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Richard Colman: 5,275, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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