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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 03 Feb 2016)Match played between James Peach (home) and Abdullah Soloman (away).Match won by James Peach. Result: 11-4,13-11,11-2:5-11,7-11,7-11:11-5,11-9,11-9:12-10,4-11,11-9,7-11,7-11:11-3,10-12,11-9,11-8. Starting level for James Peach: 14,619, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Abdullah Soloman: 11,691, level confidence: 10%. James Peach to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Abdullah Soloman. James Peach won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 106% better than Abdullah Soloman in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of 18,758 and Abdullah Soloman at a level of 9,111. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +3.6% and Abdullah Soloman changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +1.5% and for Abdullah Soloman becomes -6.3%. Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change. Given Abdullah Soloman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for James Peach is +0.9% and for Abdullah Soloman is -3.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 83%, Abdullah Soloman: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 65%, Abdullah Soloman: 25%. A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Peach: 14,725, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Abdullah Soloman: 11,142, level confidence: 25%. Notes
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