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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 09 Mar 2016)Match played between Abdullah Soloman (home) and James Peach (away).Match won by James Peach. Result: 6-11,9-11,11-7,11-9,4-11:8-11,11-7,11-9,6-11,11-9:6-11,10-12,8-11:7-11,11-7,12-10,5-11,11-4:11-9,12-14,13-11,11-7. Starting level for Abdullah Soloman: 11,605, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for James Peach: 14,408, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. James Peach to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Abdullah Soloman. James Peach won 60% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 12% better than Abdullah Soloman in this match. As James Peach has played below his allowed range at 13,473, his level reduction is 3.3% before damping. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 14,188 (based on typical behaviour), Abdullah Soloman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 3.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to -2.6% and Abdullah Soloman changes to +3.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes -1.2% and for Abdullah Soloman becomes +1.6%. Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change. Given Abdullah Soloman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for James Peach is -0.7% and for Abdullah Soloman is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 91%, Abdullah Soloman: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 86%, Abdullah Soloman: 80%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Abdullah Soloman: 11,705, level confidence: 80%. Final level for James Peach: 14,288, level confidence: 86%. Notes
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