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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 10 Feb 2016)Match played between Joe Brooke (home) and James Peach (away).Match won by James Peach. Result: 10-12,7-11,5-11:8-11,11-9,1-11,12-10,11-4:14-16,5-11,11-5,5-11:11-4,8-11,11-7,9-11,11-8:11-4,4-11,10-12,11-6,9-11. Starting level for Joe Brooke: 6,173, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for James Peach: 14,725, level confidence: 63%. James Peach to win as he is currently playing 139% better than Joe Brooke. James Peach won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 55% better than Joe Brooke in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Peach was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,615 and 14,725 without affecting his level. As James Peach has played below his allowed range at 9,582, his level reduction is 0.3% before damping. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 12,184 (based on typical behaviour), Joe Brooke played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to 0% and Joe Brooke changes to +8.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes -0.1% and for Joe Brooke becomes +3.1%. Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change. Given Joe Brooke's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for James Peach is 0% and for Joe Brooke is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 79%, Joe Brooke: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 64%, Joe Brooke: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Joe Brooke: 6,299, level confidence: 62%. Final level for James Peach: 14,695, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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