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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 16 Mar 2016)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and You Self Soliman (away).Match won by You Self Soliman. Result: 5-11,2-11,2-11:9-11,8-11,12-14:5-11,11-8,7-11,12-10,10-12:11-5,9-11,11-9,11-8:11-6,11-8,4-11,8-11,6-11. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,209, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for You Self Soliman: 21,994, level confidence: 63%. You Self Soliman to win as he is currently playing 254% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. You Self Soliman won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that You Self Soliman played 267% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like You Self Soliman actually played at a level of 22,377 and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles at a level of 6,103. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 0.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for You Self Soliman changes to +0.9% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -0.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for You Self Soliman becomes +0.4% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -0.5%. Given You Self Soliman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for You Self Soliman is 0% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -0.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. You Self Soliman: 80%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. You Self Soliman: 78%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 81%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,163, level confidence: 81%. Final level for You Self Soliman: 22,007, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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