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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 16 Mar 2016)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Joel Sweeeeede (away).Match won by Joel Sweeeeede. Result: 5-11,11-8,7-11,12-10,10-12. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 5,053, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Joel Sweeeeede: 7,135, level confidence: 60%. Joel Sweeeeede to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Andy Ewings. Joel Sweeeeede won 60% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Sweeeeede played 11% better than Andy Ewings in this match. As Joel Sweeeeede has played below his allowed range at 6,077, his level reduction is 8% before damping. On the assumption that Joel Sweeeeede would normally have been playing at level 6,874 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Ewings played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 8.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Sweeeeede changes to -6.7% and Andy Ewings changes to +7.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Sweeeeede becomes -2.6% and for Andy Ewings becomes +3%. Given Joel Sweeeeede's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.3% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Joel Sweeeeede is -1.8% and for Andy Ewings is +2.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Sweeeeede: 77%, Andy Ewings: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Sweeeeede: 69%, Andy Ewings: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 5,159, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Joel Sweeeeede: 6,999, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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