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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 1 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Wed 02 Mar 2016)Match played between Charlie Griggs (home) and Henry Duncanson (away).Match won by Charlie Griggs. Result: 11-9,11-6,12-10:11-5,11-8,11-5:10-12,11-9,11-9,11-9:8-11,8-11,5-11:11-9,11-7,6-11,8-11,11-8. Starting level for Charlie Griggs: 4,773, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Henry Duncanson: 2,815, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Charlie Griggs to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Henry Duncanson. Charlie Griggs won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Griggs played 42% better than Henry Duncanson in this match. In this case, Charlie Griggs played at level 4,203 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Charlie Griggs would normally have been playing at level 4,411 (based on typical behaviour), Henry Duncanson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Griggs changes to 0% and Henry Duncanson changes to +3.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Griggs becomes 0% and for Henry Duncanson becomes +2.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Charlie Griggs is 0% and for Henry Duncanson is +1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Griggs: 90%, Henry Duncanson: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Griggs: 82%, Henry Duncanson: 83%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charlie Griggs: 4,766, level confidence: 82%. Final level for Henry Duncanson: 2,859, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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