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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 1 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Wed 02 Mar 2016)Match played between Josh 'Come-Down' Rose (home) and Joe 'Chip' Walder (away).Match won by Josh 'Come-Down' Rose. Result: 11-9,11-7,6-11,8-11,11-8. Starting level for Josh 'Come-Down' Rose: 3,595, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Starting level for Joe 'Chip' Walder: 2,144, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Josh 'Come-Down' Rose to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Joe 'Chip' Walder. Josh 'Come-Down' Rose won 60% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Josh 'Come-Down' Rose played 8% better than Joe 'Chip' Walder in this match. As Josh 'Come-Down' Rose has played below his allowed range at 2,650, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Josh 'Come-Down' Rose would normally have been playing at level 3,332 (based on typical behaviour), Joe 'Chip' Walder played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.9% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Josh 'Come-Down' Rose changes to -10.9% and Joe 'Chip' Walder changes to +15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Josh 'Come-Down' Rose becomes -4.4% and for Joe 'Chip' Walder becomes +6.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Josh 'Come-Down' Rose is -3.3% and for Joe 'Chip' Walder is +4.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Josh 'Come-Down' Rose: 84%, Joe 'Chip' Walder: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Josh 'Come-Down' Rose: 67%, Joe 'Chip' Walder: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Josh 'Come-Down' Rose: 3,476, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Joe 'Chip' Walder: 2,245, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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