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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Redland Z v David Lloyd A (Wed 03 Feb 2016)Match played between Mike Martin (home) and Rupert Maule (away).Match won by Rupert Maule. Result: 8-10,3-9,5-9. Starting level for Mike Martin: 4,348, level confidence: 18%. Starting level for Rupert Maule: 3,387, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Mike Martin to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Rupert Maule. Rupert Maule won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rupert Maule played 42% better than Mike Martin in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rupert Maule actually played at a level of 4,567 and Mike Martin at a level of 3,225. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rupert Maule changes to +7.3% and Mike Martin changes to -30%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rupert Maule becomes +3.3% and for Mike Martin becomes -9.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Rupert Maule is +2.5% and for Mike Martin is -6.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mike Martin is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rupert Maule: 86%, Mike Martin: 42%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rupert Maule: 64%, Mike Martin: 31%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Martin: 4,135, level confidence: 31%. Final level for Rupert Maule: 3,467, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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