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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: David Lloyd Lovecars v Chew Valley Winter A (Wed 10 Feb 2016)Match played between Nick Harrison (home) and Joe Williams (away).Match won by Nick Harrison. Result: 9-3,9-3,9-1. Starting level for Nick Harrison: 2,000, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Joe Williams: 1,605, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Nick Harrison to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Joe Williams. Nick Harrison won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Harrison played 97% better than Joe Williams in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Harrison actually played at a level of 2,515 and Joe Williams at a level of 1,276. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Harrison changes to +23% and Joe Williams changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Harrison becomes +9.4% and for Joe Williams becomes -9.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Nick Harrison is +7.1% and for Joe Williams is -6.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Joe Williams is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Harrison: 86%, Joe Williams: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Harrison: 68%, Joe Williams: 71%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nick Harrison: 2,140, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Joe Williams: 1,549, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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