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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: University of Bristol Ballers v Shepton Mallet B (Tue 16 Feb 2016)Match played between Michael Brooks (home) and Dominic Feather (away).Match won by Michael Brooks. Result: 9-0,9-1,9-2. Starting level for Michael Brooks: 1,627, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Dominic Feather: 946, level confidence: 63%. Michael Brooks to win as he is currently playing 72% better than Dominic Feather. Michael Brooks won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Brooks played 209% better than Dominic Feather in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Brooks actually played at a level of 2,181 and Dominic Feather at a level of 706. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Brooks changes to +22% and Dominic Feather changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Brooks becomes +10% and for Dominic Feather becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Michael Brooks is +7.5% and for Dominic Feather is -9.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Dominic Feather is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Brooks: 84%, Dominic Feather: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Brooks: 63%, Dominic Feather: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Michael Brooks: 1,746, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Dominic Feather: 900, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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