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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: University of Bristol Ballers v Bradley Stoke Squash Club A (Thu 03 Mar 2016)Match played between Arran 'Nurse' Maitala (home) and Andrew Blake (away).Match won by Arran 'Nurse' Maitala. Result: 9-0,9-1,7-9,9-0. Starting level for Arran 'Nurse' Maitala: 1,803, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Andrew Blake: 1,037, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Arran 'Nurse' Maitala to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Andrew Blake. Arran 'Nurse' Maitala won 75% of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arran 'Nurse' Maitala played 45% better than Andrew Blake in this match. In this case, Arran 'Nurse' Maitala played at level 1,578 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Arran 'Nurse' Maitala would normally have been playing at level 1,655 (based on typical behaviour), Andrew Blake played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arran 'Nurse' Maitala changes to 0% and Andrew Blake changes to +3.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arran 'Nurse' Maitala becomes 0% and for Andrew Blake becomes +3.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Arran 'Nurse' Maitala is 0% and for Andrew Blake is +2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arran 'Nurse' Maitala: 86%, Andrew Blake: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arran 'Nurse' Maitala: 78%, Andrew Blake: 80%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Arran 'Nurse' Maitala: 1,800, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Andrew Blake: 1,060, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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