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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Lansdown 3 v Redland Capybaras (Wed 16 Mar 2016)Match played between Charlie Ramsey (home) and Giles Sharley (away).Match won by Giles Sharley. Result: 1-9,1-9,1-9. Starting level for Charlie Ramsey: 927, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Giles Sharley: 1,280, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Giles Sharley to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Charlie Ramsey. Giles Sharley won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Giles Sharley played 209% better than Charlie Ramsey in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Giles Sharley actually played at a level of 1,915 and Charlie Ramsey at a level of 620. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 41% and 41% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Giles Sharley changes to +32% and Charlie Ramsey changes to -41%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Giles Sharley becomes +14.9% and for Charlie Ramsey becomes -21%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Giles Sharley is +11% and for Charlie Ramsey is -15%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Giles Sharley is limited to +10% and Charlie Ramsey is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Giles Sharley: 88%, Charlie Ramsey: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Giles Sharley: 59%, Charlie Ramsey: 52%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charlie Ramsey: 882, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Giles Sharley: 1,406, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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