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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: University of Bath 4 v Keynsham (Wed 10 Feb 2016)Match played between Alex 'Anger Management' Snook (home) and David Blake (away).Match won by David Blake. Result: 9-2,4-9,3-9,5-9. Starting level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 832, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for David Blake: 1,085, level confidence: 59%. David Blake to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Alex 'Anger Management' Snook. David Blake won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Blake played 23% better than Alex 'Anger Management' Snook in this match. As David Blake has played below his allowed range at 1,025, his level reduction is 0.4% before damping. On the assumption that David Blake would normally have been playing at level 1,060 (based on typical behaviour), Alex 'Anger Management' Snook played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 1.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Blake changes to -0.4% and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook changes to +1.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Blake becomes -0.4% and for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook becomes +1.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for David Blake is 0% and for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Blake: 77%, Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Blake: 75%, Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 841, level confidence: 76%. Final level for David Blake: 1,080, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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