|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Redland Eagles v Bath Leisure Squash 1 (Wed 13 Jan 2016)Match played between Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (home) and Chester Barnes (away).Match won by Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss. Result: 9-5,9-5,8-10,9-4. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 924, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Chester Barnes: 720, level confidence: 10%. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Chester Barnes. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss won 75% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss played 24% better than Chester Barnes in this match. In this case, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss played at level 898 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss would normally have been playing at level 905 (based on typical behaviour), Chester Barnes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to 0% and Chester Barnes changes to +0.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes 0% and for Chester Barnes becomes +0.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is 0% and for Chester Barnes is +0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 81%, Chester Barnes: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 80%, Chester Barnes: 31%. A final adjustment of -3.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 921, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Chester Barnes: 675, level confidence: 31%. Notes
|