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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Bath Leisure Squash 1 v Redland Eagles (Wed 17 Feb 2016)Match played between Chester Barnes (home) and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (away).Match won by Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss. Result: 6-9,3-9,5-9. Starting level for Chester Barnes: 655, level confidence: 46%. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 922, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Chester Barnes. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss played 46% better than Chester Barnes in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss actually played at a level of 938 and Chester Barnes at a level of 644. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 1.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to +0.8% and Chester Barnes changes to -1.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes +0.8% and for Chester Barnes becomes -1.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is +0.6% and for Chester Barnes is -1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 90%, Chester Barnes: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 89%, Chester Barnes: 67%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chester Barnes: 647, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 926, level confidence: 89%. Notes
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