|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Redland Eagles v Hutton Moor A (Thu 25 Feb 2016)Match played between Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (home) and Damien Trevitt (away).Match won by Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss. Result: 9-1,9-2,9-2. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 926, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Starting level for Damien Trevitt: 479, level confidence: 10%. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss to win as he is currently playing 93% better than Damien Trevitt. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss played 134% better than Damien Trevitt in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss actually played at a level of 1,019 and Damien Trevitt at a level of 435. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 7.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to +0.8% and Damien Trevitt changes to -7.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes +0.8% and for Damien Trevitt becomes -5.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is +0.6% and for Damien Trevitt is -3.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 93%, Damien Trevitt: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 84%, Damien Trevitt: 29%. A final adjustment of +2.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 932, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Damien Trevitt: 482, level confidence: 29%. Notes
|