|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Redland Eagles v Weston Shankers (Wed 03 Feb 2016)Match played between Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (home) and Chris Farrant (away).Match won by Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss. Result: 10-9,9-7,9-4. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 960, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for Chris Farrant: 670, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Chris Farrant. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss played 30% better than Chris Farrant in this match. As Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss has played below his allowed range at 875, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss would normally have been playing at level 922 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Farrant played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to 0% and Chris Farrant changes to +2.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes -0.2% and for Chris Farrant becomes +2.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is 0% and for Chris Farrant is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 88%, Chris Farrant: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 84%, Chris Farrant: 82%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 957, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Chris Farrant: 681, level confidence: 82%. Notes
|