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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Lansdown 2 v University of Bath 2 (Wed 23 Mar 2016)Match played between Daniel Gray (home) and Ben Bradly (away).Match won by Daniel Gray. Result: 9-0,9-4,9-5. Starting level for Daniel Gray: 3,063, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Bradly: 1,439, level confidence: 68%. Daniel Gray to win as he is currently playing 113% better than Ben Bradly. Daniel Gray won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Gray played 76% better than Ben Bradly in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daniel Gray was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,179 and 3,063 without affecting his level. In this case, Daniel Gray played at level 2,582 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Daniel Gray would normally have been playing at level 2,633 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Bradly played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Gray changes to 0% and Ben Bradly changes to +1.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Gray becomes 0% and for Ben Bradly becomes +1.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Daniel Gray is 0% and for Ben Bradly is +0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Gray: 88%, Ben Bradly: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Gray: 80%, Ben Bradly: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Daniel Gray: 3,058, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Ben Bradly: 1,449, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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