|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 8: Colston v University of Bath 5 (Wed 03 Feb 2016)Match played between Bob Young (home) and Alfie 'Dr Hip Replacement' Treloar (away).Match won by Bob Young. Result: 10-9,9-4,10-8. Starting level for Bob Young: 404, level confidence: 42%. Starting level for Alfie 'Dr Hip Replacement' Treloar: 282, level confidence: 27%. Bob Young to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Alfie 'Dr Hip Replacement' Treloar. Bob Young won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bob Young played 30% better than Alfie 'Dr Hip Replacement' Treloar in this match. As Bob Young has played below his allowed range at 368, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Bob Young would normally have been playing at level 388 (based on typical behaviour), Alfie 'Dr Hip Replacement' Treloar played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bob Young changes to 0% and Alfie 'Dr Hip Replacement' Treloar changes to +2.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bob Young becomes -0.1% and for Alfie 'Dr Hip Replacement' Treloar becomes +2.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Bob Young is 0% and for Alfie 'Dr Hip Replacement' Treloar is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bob Young: 65%, Alfie 'Dr Hip Replacement' Treloar: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bob Young: 62%, Alfie 'Dr Hip Replacement' Treloar: 50%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Bob Young: 403, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Alfie 'Dr Hip Replacement' Treloar: 287, level confidence: 50%. Notes
|