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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Jaguars v Redland Winter Lynx (Thu 25 Feb 2016)Match played between Karen De Klerk (home) and Tessa Harris (away).Match won by Tessa Harris. Result: 4-9,1-9,1-9. Starting level for Karen De Klerk: 734, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Tessa Harris: 923, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Tessa Harris to win as she is currently playing 26% better than Karen De Klerk. Tessa Harris won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tessa Harris played 118% better than Karen De Klerk in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tessa Harris actually played at a level of 1,215 and Karen De Klerk at a level of 557. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tessa Harris changes to +28% and Karen De Klerk changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tessa Harris becomes +14.7% and for Karen De Klerk becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016' so the adjustment for Tessa Harris is +11.1% and for Karen De Klerk is -9.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tessa Harris is limited to +10% and Karen De Klerk is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tessa Harris: 84%, Karen De Klerk: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tessa Harris: 64%, Karen De Klerk: 68%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Karen De Klerk: 705, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Tessa Harris: 1,009, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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