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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Jaguars v Redland Winter Lynx (Thu 25 Feb 2016)Match played between Anita Edson (home) and Jacqui Clinch (away).Match won by Anita Edson. Result: 9-1,9-4,9-7. Starting level for Anita Edson: 405, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Jacqui Clinch: 448, level confidence: 67%. Jacqui Clinch to win as she is currently playing 11% better than Anita Edson. Anita Edson won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 51% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anita Edson played 52% better than Jacqui Clinch in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anita Edson actually played at a level of 526 and Jacqui Clinch at a level of 345. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anita Edson changes to +26% and Jacqui Clinch changes to -28%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anita Edson becomes +14.1% and for Jacqui Clinch becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016' so the adjustment for Anita Edson is +10.6% and for Jacqui Clinch is -10.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Anita Edson is limited to +10% and Jacqui Clinch is limited to -7.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anita Edson: 85%, Jacqui Clinch: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anita Edson: 65%, Jacqui Clinch: 63%. A final adjustment of -0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Anita Edson: 441, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Jacqui Clinch: 415, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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