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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown B v Redland Winter Jaguars (Thu 24 Mar 2016)Match played between Clare Mitchell (home) and Helen Garrott (away).Match won by Helen Garrott. Result: 2-9,5-9,0-9. Starting level for Clare Mitchell: 579, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Helen Garrott: 787, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Helen Garrott to win as she is currently playing 36% better than Clare Mitchell. Helen Garrott won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Helen Garrott played 97% better than Clare Mitchell in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Helen Garrott actually played at a level of 947 and Clare Mitchell at a level of 481. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Helen Garrott changes to +16% and Clare Mitchell changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Helen Garrott becomes +9.1% and for Clare Mitchell becomes -9.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016' so the adjustment for Helen Garrott is +6.8% and for Clare Mitchell is -7.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Clare Mitchell is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Helen Garrott: 91%, Clare Mitchell: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Helen Garrott: 75%, Clare Mitchell: 71%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Clare Mitchell: 551, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Helen Garrott: 833, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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