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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: University of Bristol Beasts v Weston A (Thu 18 Feb 2016)Match played between Lydia Shepherd (home) and Henrietta Winters (away).Match won by Lydia Shepherd. Result: 9-6,9-11,3-9,9-6,9-7. Starting level for Lydia Shepherd: 142, level confidence: 39%. Starting level for Henrietta Winters: 211, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Henrietta Winters to win as she is currently playing 49% better than Lydia Shepherd. Lydia Shepherd won 60% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 0% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lydia Shepherd played 8% better than Henrietta Winters in this match. Lydia Shepherd has played significantly better in this match than her level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get her level right more quickly. As a result, her pre-match level has been increased to 180. The remaining calculations use this as her level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lydia Shepherd actually played at a level of 202 and Henrietta Winters at a level of 188. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lydia Shepherd changes to +11% and Henrietta Winters changes to -6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lydia Shepherd becomes +7.1% and for Henrietta Winters becomes -4.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016' so the adjustment for Lydia Shepherd is +5.3% and for Henrietta Winters is -3.3%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Lydia Shepherd is +34%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lydia Shepherd: 63%, Henrietta Winters: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lydia Shepherd: 50%, Henrietta Winters: 67%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lydia Shepherd: 188, level confidence: 50%. Final level for Henrietta Winters: 206, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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