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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redwood v Redland B (Wed 18 Mar 2009)Match played between James Alexander (home) and Danny Webster (away).Match won by Danny Webster. Result: 2-9,4-9,5-9. Starting level for James Alexander: 1,531, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Danny Webster: 3,022, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Danny Webster to win as he is currently playing 97% better than James Alexander. Danny Webster won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Danny Webster played 57% better than James Alexander in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Danny Webster was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,272 and 3,022 without affecting his level. In this case, Danny Webster played at level 2,530 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Danny Webster would normally have been playing at level 2,662 (based on typical behaviour), James Alexander played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Danny Webster changes to 0% and James Alexander changes to +3.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Danny Webster becomes 0% and for James Alexander becomes +2.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2008/2009' so the adjustment for Danny Webster is 0% and for James Alexander is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Danny Webster: 85%, James Alexander: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Danny Webster: 76%, James Alexander: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Alexander: 1,561, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Danny Webster: 3,017, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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