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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland B v University of Bath 4 (Wed 25 Mar 2009)Match played between Danny Webster (home) and Andy Hibbert (away).Match won by Danny Webster. Result: 9-1,9-6,9-0. Starting level for Danny Webster: 3,017, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Andy Hibbert: 1,125, level confidence: 21%. Danny Webster to win as he is currently playing 168% better than Andy Hibbert. Danny Webster won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Danny Webster played 97% better than Andy Hibbert in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Danny Webster was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,785 and 3,017 without affecting his level. In this case, Danny Webster played at level 2,301 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Danny Webster would normally have been playing at level 2,389 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Hibbert played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Danny Webster changes to 0% and Andy Hibbert changes to +2.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Danny Webster becomes 0% and for Andy Hibbert becomes +2.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2008/2009' so the adjustment for Danny Webster is 0% and for Andy Hibbert is +1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Danny Webster: 86%, Andy Hibbert: 46%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Danny Webster: 74%, Andy Hibbert: 39%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Danny Webster: 3,012, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Andy Hibbert: 1,141, level confidence: 39%. Notes
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