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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown B v David Lloyd A (Thu 26 Feb 2009)Match played between Pippa Green (home) and Lorena Martinez (away).Match won by Pippa Green. Result: 9-7,9-0,9-3. Starting level for Pippa Green: 833, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Lorena Martinez: 712, level confidence: 55%. Pippa Green to win as she is currently playing 17% better than Lorena Martinez. Pippa Green won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pippa Green played 67% better than Lorena Martinez in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Pippa Green actually played at a level of 995 and Lorena Martinez at a level of 596. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pippa Green changes to +15% and Lorena Martinez changes to -18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pippa Green becomes +9.1% and for Lorena Martinez becomes -10.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Spring 2008/2009' so the adjustment for Pippa Green is +6.8% and for Lorena Martinez is -7.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lorena Martinez is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pippa Green: 80%, Lorena Martinez: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pippa Green: 67%, Lorena Martinez: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Pippa Green: 888, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Lorena Martinez: 677, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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