|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Redwood v David Lloyd Summer B (Thu 26 Mar 2009)Match played between Indira Barker (home) and Mags Szymanski (away).Match won by Indira Barker. Result: 9-1,9-0,9-2:9-0,9-0,9-0:9-4,9-0,9-4:9-0,9-6,9-0:9-1,9-5,9-3. Starting level for Indira Barker: 775, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Mags Szymanski: 411, level confidence: 64%. Indira Barker to win as she is currently playing 89% better than Mags Szymanski. Indira Barker won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Indira Barker played 209% better than Mags Szymanski in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Indira Barker actually played at a level of 992 and Mags Szymanski at a level of 321. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Indira Barker changes to +17% and Mags Szymanski changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Indira Barker becomes +10% and for Mags Szymanski becomes -11.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Spring 2008/2009' so the adjustment for Indira Barker is +7.5% and for Mags Szymanski is -8.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mags Szymanski is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Indira Barker: 85%, Mags Szymanski: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Indira Barker: 66%, Mags Szymanski: 62%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Indira Barker: 832, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Mags Szymanski: 395, level confidence: 62%. Notes
|