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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Workout Harbourside v University of Bath 1 (Tue 26 Apr 2016)Match played between Rees Batley (home) and Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh (away).Match won by Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh. Result: 9-11,8-11,11-3,11-3,8-11. Starting level for Rees Batley: 2,734, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh: 4,433, level confidence: 63%. Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Rees Batley. Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh won 60% of the games and 45% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 21% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh played 3% better than Rees Batley in this match. As Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh has played below his allowed range at 3,279, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh would normally have been playing at level 4,144 (based on typical behaviour), Rees Batley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 16% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh changes to -12% and Rees Batley changes to +16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh becomes -4.5% and for Rees Batley becomes +6.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Play-Off 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh is -3.3% and for Rees Batley is +4.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh: 79%, Rees Batley: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh: 63%, Rees Batley: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rees Batley: 2,863, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh: 4,285, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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