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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Thornbury A (Summer) v David Lloyd A (Wed 25 May 2016)Match played between Alex Hall (home) and Grant Jones (away).Match won by Grant Jones. Result: 6-11,6-11,2-11. Starting level for Alex Hall: 2,077, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Grant Jones: 2,920, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Grant Jones to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Alex Hall. Grant Jones won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Grant Jones played 136% better than Alex Hall in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Grant Jones actually played at a level of 3,781 and Alex Hall at a level of 1,604. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Grant Jones changes to +23% and Alex Hall changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Grant Jones becomes +8.3% and for Alex Hall becomes -9.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2016' so the adjustment for Grant Jones is +5.4% and for Alex Hall is -6.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alex Hall is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Grant Jones: 85%, Alex Hall: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Grant Jones: 66%, Alex Hall: 64%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alex Hall: 1,975, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Grant Jones: 3,083, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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