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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: David Lloyd A v Thornbury A (Summer) (Wed 29 Jun 2016)Match played between Rusty Pearce (home) and Ewan Davies- Smith (away).Match won by Rusty Pearce. Result: 11-9,11-6,11-6:11-8,11-9,11-3:9-11,17-15,11-8,11-5:11-6,8-11,11-13,11-2,11-8. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 5,038, level confidence: 45%. Starting level for Ewan Davies- Smith: 3,437, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Rusty Pearce to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Ewan Davies- Smith. Rusty Pearce won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rusty Pearce played 56% better than Ewan Davies- Smith in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rusty Pearce actually played at a level of 5,205 and Ewan Davies- Smith at a level of 3,327. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 2.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rusty Pearce changes to +2.7% and Ewan Davies- Smith changes to -1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rusty Pearce becomes +1.6% and for Ewan Davies- Smith becomes -1.1%. Given Rusty Pearce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2016' so the adjustment for Rusty Pearce is +1% and for Ewan Davies- Smith is -0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rusty Pearce: 67%, Ewan Davies- Smith: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rusty Pearce: 65%, Ewan Davies- Smith: 82%. A final adjustment of -2.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 4,917, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Ewan Davies- Smith: 3,382, level confidence: 82%. Notes
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