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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Redland Summer A v Thornbury A (Summer) (Wed 01 Jun 2016)Match played between Konrad Tyma (home) and Mark 'On Your' Toseland (away).Match won by Konrad Tyma. Result: 11-9,15-13,11-3. Starting level for Konrad Tyma: 5,142, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 2,162, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Konrad Tyma to win as he is currently playing 138% better than Mark 'On Your' Toseland. Konrad Tyma won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Konrad Tyma played 50% better than Mark 'On Your' Toseland in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Konrad Tyma was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,303 and 5,142 without affecting his level. As Konrad Tyma has played below his allowed range at 3,276, his level reduction is 0.8% before damping. On the assumption that Konrad Tyma would normally have been playing at level 4,259 (based on typical behaviour), Mark 'On Your' Toseland played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 9.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Konrad Tyma changes to -0.5% and Mark 'On Your' Toseland changes to +7.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Konrad Tyma becomes -0.3% and for Mark 'On Your' Toseland becomes +4%. Given Konrad Tyma's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2016' so the adjustment for Konrad Tyma is 0% and for Mark 'On Your' Toseland is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Konrad Tyma: 80%, Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Konrad Tyma: 64%, Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 70%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Konrad Tyma: 5,165, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 2,216, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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