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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Thornbury A (Summer) v Redland Summer A (Wed 06 Jul 2016)Match played between Bradley Clare (home) and Dan West (away).Match won by Dan West. Result: 7-11,2-11,6-11:4-11,6-11,9-11:8-11,4-11,4-11:8-11,7-11,11-13. Starting level for Bradley Clare: 6,034, level confidence: 52%. Starting level for Dan West: 11,634, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Dan West to win as he is currently playing 93% better than Bradley Clare. Dan West won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan West played 120% better than Bradley Clare in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan West actually played at a level of 12,427 and Bradley Clare at a level of 5,649. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 4.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan West changes to +3.4% and Bradley Clare changes to -4.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan West becomes +1.5% and for Bradley Clare becomes -2.2%. Given Dan West's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change. Given Bradley Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2016' so the adjustment for Dan West is +0.7% and for Bradley Clare is -1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan West: 86%, Bradley Clare: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan West: 81%, Bradley Clare: 68%. A final adjustment of +2.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Bradley Clare: 5,995, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Dan West: 12,321, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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