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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Redland Summer A v Lansdown Summer A (Wed 08 Jun 2016)Match played between Dale Diment (home) and Andy Ewings (away).Match won by Dale Diment. Result: 11-6,11-2,11-6:11-8,11-5,5-11,17-15:13-11,12-10,8-11,11-7:8-11,11-6,11-8,11-7. Starting level for Dale Diment: 5,483, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 5,374, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Dale Diment to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Andy Ewings. Dale Diment won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dale Diment played 136% better than Andy Ewings in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dale Diment actually played at a level of 8,334 and Andy Ewings at a level of 3,536. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 52% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dale Diment changes to +51% and Andy Ewings changes to -42%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dale Diment becomes +13.6% and for Andy Ewings becomes -12%. Given Dale Diment's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.8% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.9% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2016' so the adjustment for Dale Diment is +8.5% and for Andy Ewings is -7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andy Ewings is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dale Diment: 81%, Andy Ewings: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dale Diment: 53%, Andy Ewings: 57%. A final adjustment of -1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dale Diment: 5,791, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Andy Ewings: 5,110, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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