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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: David Lloyd A v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 13 Jul 2016)Match played between Rusty Pearce (home) and Jason Smith (away).Match won by Rusty Pearce. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-6. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 4,917, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Jason Smith: 2,380, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Rusty Pearce to win as he is currently playing 107% better than Jason Smith. Rusty Pearce won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rusty Pearce played 65% better than Jason Smith in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rusty Pearce was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,521 and 4,917 without affecting his level. In this case, Rusty Pearce played at level 4,093 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Rusty Pearce would normally have been playing at level 4,265 (based on typical behaviour), Jason Smith played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rusty Pearce changes to 0% and Jason Smith changes to +2.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rusty Pearce becomes 0% and for Jason Smith becomes +1.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2016' so the adjustment for Rusty Pearce is 0% and for Jason Smith is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rusty Pearce: 78%, Jason Smith: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rusty Pearce: 70%, Jason Smith: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 4,910, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Jason Smith: 2,404, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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