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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Lansdown Summer A v Thornbury A (Summer) (Wed 15 Jun 2016)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Ewan Davies- Smith (away).Match won by Andy Ewings. Result: 4-11,11-6,7-11,11-3,11-9:11-3,15-13,11-4:11-8,11-2,11-2:11-6,12-10,11-7. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 5,110, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Ewan Davies- Smith: 3,353, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Andy Ewings to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Ewan Davies- Smith. Andy Ewings won 60% of the games and 52% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Ewings played 10% better than Ewan Davies- Smith in this match. As Andy Ewings has played below his allowed range at 4,080, his level reduction is 10.6% before damping. On the assumption that Andy Ewings would normally have been playing at level 4,847 (based on typical behaviour), Ewan Davies- Smith played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.5% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Ewings changes to -8.5% and Ewan Davies- Smith changes to +8.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Ewings becomes -3.3% and for Ewan Davies- Smith becomes +3.6%. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2016' so the adjustment for Andy Ewings is -2.1% and for Ewan Davies- Smith is +2.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Ewings: 74%, Ewan Davies- Smith: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Ewings: 63%, Ewan Davies- Smith: 75%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 5,015, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Ewan Davies- Smith: 3,437, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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