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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Redland Summer A v David Lloyd A (Wed 20 Jul 2016)Match played between Dan West (home) and Oliver Morrall (away).Match won by Dan West. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-1:11-5,3-11,11-7,11-6:5-11,5-11,1-11:10-12,11-3,7-11,9-11. Starting level for Dan West: 12,321, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Oliver Morrall: 5,764, level confidence: 57%. Dan West to win as he is currently playing 114% better than Oliver Morrall. Dan West won all of the games and 80% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan West played 313% better than Oliver Morrall in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan West actually played at a level of 17,116 and Oliver Morrall at a level of 4,149. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan West changes to +19% and Oliver Morrall changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan West becomes +4.9% and for Oliver Morrall becomes -7.5%. Given Dan West's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 49% has been applied to his level change. Given Oliver Morrall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.9% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2016' so the adjustment for Dan West is +2.2% and for Oliver Morrall is -4.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan West: 87%, Oliver Morrall: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan West: 63%, Oliver Morrall: 54%. A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dan West: 12,572, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Oliver Morrall: 5,616, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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