|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Weston String Strokers v David Lloyd Lovecars (Wed 18 May 2016)Match played between Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe (home) and Ryan Haskins (away).Match won by Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe. Result: 9-4,10-8,9-3. Starting level for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 1,481, level confidence: 55%. Starting level for Ryan Haskins: 896, level confidence: 50%. Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Ryan Haskins. Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe played 44% better than Ryan Haskins in this match. In this case, Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe played at level 1,332 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe would normally have been playing at level 1,378 (based on typical behaviour), Ryan Haskins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe changes to 0% and Ryan Haskins changes to +2.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe becomes 0% and for Ryan Haskins becomes +2.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2016' so the adjustment for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe is 0% and for Ryan Haskins is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 74%, Ryan Haskins: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 69%, Ryan Haskins: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 1,473, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Ryan Haskins: 900, level confidence: 66%. Notes
|