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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Redland Summer D v Weston String Strokers (Wed 01 Jun 2016)Match played between Giles Sharley (home) and Shawn Hale (away).Match won by Giles Sharley. Result: 9-4,9-3,9-6. Starting level for Giles Sharley: 1,304, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Shawn Hale: 687, level confidence: 67%. Giles Sharley to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Shawn Hale. Giles Sharley won all of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Giles Sharley played 50% better than Shawn Hale in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Giles Sharley was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,000 and 1,304 without affecting his level. In this case, Giles Sharley played at level 1,097 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Giles Sharley would normally have been playing at level 1,165 (based on typical behaviour), Shawn Hale played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Giles Sharley changes to 0% and Shawn Hale changes to +4.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Giles Sharley becomes 0% and for Shawn Hale becomes +3.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2016' so the adjustment for Giles Sharley is 0% and for Shawn Hale is +2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Giles Sharley: 87%, Shawn Hale: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Giles Sharley: 78%, Shawn Hale: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Giles Sharley: 1,293, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Shawn Hale: 703, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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