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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Thornbury A v Workout Harbourside A (Wed 24 Aug 2016)Match played between Bradley Clare/Ewan Davies- Smith (home) and Declan Heaslewood/Seamus Singh (away).Match won by Bradley Clare/Ewan Davies- Smith. Result: 15-3,15-11,15-8:15-4,15-5,15-9. Starting level for Bradley Clare/Ewan Davies- Smith: 2,396, level confidence: 49%. Starting level for Declan Heaslewood/Seamus Singh: 1,189, level confidence: 10%. Bradley Clare/Ewan Davies- Smith to win as he is currently playing 102% better than Declan Heaslewood/Seamus Singh. Bradley Clare/Ewan Davies- Smith won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bradley Clare/Ewan Davies- Smith played 105% better than Declan Heaslewood/Seamus Singh in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bradley Clare/Ewan Davies- Smith actually played at a level of 2,414 and Declan Heaslewood/Seamus Singh at a level of 1,180. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bradley Clare/Ewan Davies- Smith changes to 0% and Declan Heaslewood/Seamus Singh changes to -0.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bradley Clare/Ewan Davies- Smith becomes +0.1% and for Declan Heaslewood/Seamus Singh becomes -0.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Doubles 2016' so the adjustment for Bradley Clare/Ewan Davies- Smith is 0% and for Declan Heaslewood/Seamus Singh is -0.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bradley Clare/Ewan Davies- Smith: 70%, Declan Heaslewood/Seamus Singh: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bradley Clare/Ewan Davies- Smith: 69%, Declan Heaslewood/Seamus Singh: 31%. Final level for Bradley Clare/Ewan Davies- Smith: 2,397, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Declan Heaslewood/Seamus Singh: 1,185, level confidence: 31%. Notes
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