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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Workout Harbourside A v David Lloyd A (Wed 31 Aug 2016)Match played between Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh (home) and Chris Wood/Paul Woodman (away).Match won by Chris Wood/Paul Woodman. Result: 6-15,9-15,9-15. Starting level for Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh: 792, level confidence: 26%. Starting level for Chris Wood/Paul Woodman: 3,119, level confidence: 10%. Chris Wood/Paul Woodman to win as he is currently playing 294% better than Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh. Chris Wood/Paul Woodman won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Wood/Paul Woodman played 88% better than Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Wood/Paul Woodman was taking it easy by anything up to 34%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,232 and 3,119 without affecting his level. In this case, Chris Wood/Paul Woodman played at level 1,751 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Wood/Paul Woodman would normally have been playing at level 2,064 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Wood/Paul Woodman changes to 0% and Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh changes to +3.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Wood/Paul Woodman becomes 0% and for Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh becomes +3.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Doubles 2016' so the adjustment for Chris Wood/Paul Woodman is 0% and for Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh is +2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Wood/Paul Woodman: 32%, Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh: 51%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Wood/Paul Woodman: 22%, Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh: 35%. A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam Jefferies/Seamus Singh: 824, level confidence: 35%. Final level for Chris Wood/Paul Woodman: 3,119, level confidence: 22%. Notes
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