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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 1 v Shepton Mallet A (Wed 05 Oct 2016)Match played between Will Kingwell (home) and Adam Sindall-White (away).Match won by Will Kingwell. Result: 9-3,9-1,9-0:9-4,9-0,9-0:9-3,9-10,9-6,9-6:9-3,9-5,9-4:9-3,9-2,5-9,9-7. Starting level for Will Kingwell: 6,181, level confidence: 38%. Starting level for Adam Sindall-White: 3,806, level confidence: 43%. Will Kingwell to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Adam Sindall-White. Will Kingwell won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Kingwell played 164% better than Adam Sindall-White in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Will Kingwell actually played at a level of 7,881 and Adam Sindall-White at a level of 2,985. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Kingwell changes to +21% and Adam Sindall-White changes to -18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Kingwell becomes +6.3% and for Adam Sindall-White becomes -6.5%. Given Will Kingwell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Will Kingwell is +4.5% and for Adam Sindall-White is -4.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Kingwell: 62%, Adam Sindall-White: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Kingwell: 49%, Adam Sindall-White: 51%. A final adjustment of -1.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Will Kingwell: 6,598, level confidence: 49%. Final level for Adam Sindall-White: 3,423, level confidence: 51%. Notes
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