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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Shepton Mallet A v Lansdown 1 (Wed 09 Nov 2016)Match played between Adam Sindall-White (home) and Andy Ewings (away).Match won by Andy Ewings. Result: 1-11,0-11,3-11. Starting level for Adam Sindall-White: 3,153, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 5,209, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Andy Ewings to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Adam Sindall-White. Andy Ewings won all of the games and 89% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 725% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Ewings played 725% better than Adam Sindall-White in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Ewings actually played at a level of 11,640 and Adam Sindall-White at a level of 1,411. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 123% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 87% and 87% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Ewings changes to +76% and Adam Sindall-White changes to -87%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Ewings becomes +19% and for Adam Sindall-White becomes -24%. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Andy Ewings is +14% and for Adam Sindall-White is -17%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andy Ewings is limited to +9.7% and Adam Sindall-White is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Ewings: 93%, Adam Sindall-White: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Ewings: 41%, Adam Sindall-White: 39%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam Sindall-White: 3,010, level confidence: 39%. Final level for Andy Ewings: 5,758, level confidence: 41%. Notes
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