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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 16 Nov 2016)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and Dale Diment (away).Match won by Dale Diment. Result: 2-11,5-11,11-6,11-2,5-11:12-10,2-11,6-11,7-11:11-9,10-12,11-3,11-7:3-11,3-11,6-11:10-12,11-8,9-11,9-11. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,182, level confidence: 48%. Starting level for Dale Diment: 5,951, level confidence: 69%. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Dale Diment. Dale Diment won 60% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dale Diment played 13% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dale Diment actually played at a level of 6,438 and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles at a level of 5,715. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.2% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dale Diment changes to +5.6% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dale Diment becomes +2.4% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -3%. Given Dale Diment's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.9% has been applied to his level change. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Dale Diment is +1.7% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dale Diment: 83%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dale Diment: 77%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 64%. A final adjustment of +1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,083, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Dale Diment: 6,208, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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