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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 19 Oct 2016)Match played between Brendan Pegrum (home) and Ben Thyer (away).Match won by Brendan Pegrum. Result: 9-2,9-1,9-0. Starting level for Brendan Pegrum: 3,260, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Thyer: 2,278, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Brendan Pegrum to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Ben Thyer. Brendan Pegrum won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Brendan Pegrum played 209% better than Ben Thyer in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Brendan Pegrum actually played at a level of 4,790 and Ben Thyer at a level of 1,550. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Brendan Pegrum changes to +36% and Ben Thyer changes to -38%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Brendan Pegrum becomes +11.7% and for Ben Thyer becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Brendan Pegrum is +8.8% and for Ben Thyer is -10%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben Thyer is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Brendan Pegrum: 89%, Ben Thyer: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Brendan Pegrum: 61%, Ben Thyer: 59%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Brendan Pegrum: 3,556, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Ben Thyer: 2,166, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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