|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Shepton Mallet A v Workout Harbourside (Wed 19 Oct 2016)Match played between George Sowrey-Cookson (home) and Paul Frost (away).Match won by George Sowrey-Cookson. Result: 9-5,9-5,9-1:0-9,9-2,9-6,9-4:9-4,9-7,2-9,6-9,3-9:10-8,4-9,9-4,6-9,9-4:7-9,9-8,9-8,9-8. Starting level for George Sowrey-Cookson: 5,465, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Paul Frost: 3,873, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. George Sowrey-Cookson to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Paul Frost. George Sowrey-Cookson won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Sowrey-Cookson played 57% better than Paul Frost in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Sowrey-Cookson actually played at a level of 5,765 and Paul Frost at a level of 3,672. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 4.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Sowrey-Cookson changes to +4.6% and Paul Frost changes to -3.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Sowrey-Cookson becomes +2.2% and for Paul Frost becomes -2.1%. Given George Sowrey-Cookson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for George Sowrey-Cookson is +1.6% and for Paul Frost is -1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Sowrey-Cookson: 79%, Paul Frost: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Sowrey-Cookson: 75%, Paul Frost: 86%. A final adjustment of +1.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for George Sowrey-Cookson: 5,727, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Paul Frost: 3,820, level confidence: 86%. Notes
|