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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Workout Harbourside v Redland Anacondas (Wed 30 Nov 2016)Match played between Paul Frost (home) and Dale Diment (away).Match won by Dale Diment. Result: 0-9,9-1,1-9,1-9:9-4,1-9,2-9,0-9:4-9,0-9,6-9:3-9,2-9,1-9:?-?. Starting level for Paul Frost: 3,525, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Dale Diment: 6,208, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Dale Diment to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Paul Frost. Dale Diment won 75% of the games and 72% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 63% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dale Diment played 38% better than Paul Frost in this match. As Dale Diment has played below his allowed range at 4,961, his level reduction is 2.3% before damping. On the assumption that Dale Diment would normally have been playing at level 5,676 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Frost played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 6.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dale Diment changes to -1.7% and Paul Frost changes to +5.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dale Diment becomes -1% and for Paul Frost becomes +2.7%. Given Dale Diment's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Dale Diment is -0.7% and for Paul Frost is +2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dale Diment: 84%, Paul Frost: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dale Diment: 74%, Paul Frost: 80%. A final adjustment of -1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Frost: 3,587, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Dale Diment: 6,000, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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