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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: University of Bath 4 v David Lloyd C (Wed 26 Oct 2016)Match played between Alex De La Fuente (home) and Chris 'League' Adams (away).Match won by Alex De La Fuente. Result: 9-2,8-9,9-4,7-9,9-7. Starting level for Alex De La Fuente: 1,200, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Chris 'League' Adams: 667, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Alex De La Fuente to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Chris 'League' Adams. Alex De La Fuente won 60% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex De La Fuente played 12% better than Chris 'League' Adams in this match. As Alex De La Fuente has played below his allowed range at 850, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Alex De La Fuente would normally have been playing at level 1,090 (based on typical behaviour), Chris 'League' Adams played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex De La Fuente changes to -10.1% and Chris 'League' Adams changes to +11%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex De La Fuente becomes -6% and for Chris 'League' Adams becomes +7.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Alex De La Fuente is -4.5% and for Chris 'League' Adams is +5.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex De La Fuente: 79%, Chris 'League' Adams: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex De La Fuente: 63%, Chris 'League' Adams: 72%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alex De La Fuente: 1,147, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Chris 'League' Adams: 711, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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