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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Weston Shankers v Kingsdown Stallions (Wed 09 Nov 2016)Match played between Chris Farrant (home) and Andrew Harson (away).Match won by Chris Farrant. Result: 9-2,9-0,9-0. Starting level for Chris Farrant: 688, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Andrew Harson: 391, level confidence: 42%. Chris Farrant to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Andrew Harson. Chris Farrant won all of the games and 93% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 278% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Farrant played 278% better than Andrew Harson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Farrant actually played at a level of 1,008 and Andrew Harson at a level of 267. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Farrant changes to +21% and Andrew Harson changes to -33%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Farrant becomes +11.6% and for Andrew Harson becomes -17%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Chris Farrant is +8.7% and for Andrew Harson is -12%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andrew Harson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Farrant: 82%, Andrew Harson: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Farrant: 56%, Andrew Harson: 44%. A final adjustment of -1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris Farrant: 732, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Andrew Harson: 372, level confidence: 44%. Notes
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