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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Lansdown 2 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 05 Oct 2016)Match played between Murray Kenneth (home) and Harry Fisher (away).Match won by Harry Fisher. Result: 9-10,5-9,3-9:6-9,1-9,4-9:8-10,10-9,3-9,9-7,3-9:1-9,0-9,7-9:8-10,3-9,9-4,4-9. Starting level for Murray Kenneth: 2,261, level confidence: 48%. Starting level for Harry Fisher: 4,399, level confidence: 10%. Harry Fisher to win as he is currently playing 95% better than Murray Kenneth. Harry Fisher won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Fisher played 38% better than Murray Kenneth in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Harry Fisher was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,346 and 4,399 without affecting his level. As Harry Fisher has played below his allowed range at 3,226, his level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that Harry Fisher would normally have been playing at level 3,895 (based on typical behaviour), Murray Kenneth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 8.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Fisher changes to -2.7% and Murray Kenneth changes to +1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Fisher becomes -1.6% and for Murray Kenneth becomes +1.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Harry Fisher is -1.2% and for Murray Kenneth is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Fisher: 32%, Murray Kenneth: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Fisher: 27%, Murray Kenneth: 58%. A final adjustment of -48% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Murray Kenneth: 2,197, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Harry Fisher: 2,061, level confidence: 27%. Notes
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